Methods of Decision Analysis
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Robert T. Clemen, Terence Reilly
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This introductory unit on decision analysis addresses the formal methods of decision making. These methods include measuring risk by subjective probabilities; growing decision trees; performing sensitivity analysis; using theoretical probability distributions; simulation of uncertain events; modelling risk attitudes; estimating the value of information; and combining quantitative and qualitative considerations. The main goal of the course is to show how to build models of real business situations that allow the decision maker to better understand the structure of decisions and to automate the decision process by using computer decision tools.