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Forecasting: Methods and Applications Hardcover – 15 December 1997

4.3 4.3 out of 5 stars 41 ratings
Edition: 3rd
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Known from its last editions as the "Bible of Forecasting", the third edition of this authoritative text has adopted a new approach-one that is as new as the latest trends in the field: "Explaining the past is not adequate for predicting the future". In other words, accurate forecasting requires more than just the fitting of models to historical data. Inside, readers will find the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. And readers will develop the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts.
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  1. ISBN-10
    0471532339
  2. ISBN-13
    978-0471532330
  3. Edition
    3rd
  4. Publisher
    Wiley
  5. Publication date
    15 December 1997
  6. Language
    English
  7. Dimensions
    20.32 x 3.18 x 24.77 cm
  8. Print length
    656 pages
  9. See all details
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Product description

From the Publisher

Spyros Makridakis is a professor of the University of Nicosia UNIC where he is the Director of the Institute for the Future and an Emeritus Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD. Steven C. Wheelwright is the author of Forecasting: Methods and Applications, 3rd Edition, published by Wiley.

From the Inside Flap

Can You Predict the Future by Looking at the Past? Since accurate forecasting requires more than just inserting historical data into a model, Forecasting: Methods and Applications, 3/e, adopts a managerial, business orientation. Integrated throughout this text is the innovative idea that explaining the past is not adequate for predicting the future. Inside, you will find the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. And you'll develop the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts. New features in the third edition include:
* An emphasis placed on the practical uses of forecasting.
* All data sets used in this book are available on the Internet.
* Comprehensive coverage provided on both quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques.
* Includes many new developments in forecasting methodology and practice.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Wiley; 3rd edition (15 December 1997)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 656 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0471532339
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0471532330
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 20.32 x 3.18 x 24.77 cm
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.3 4.3 out of 5 stars 41 ratings

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4.3 out of 5 stars
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Guilherme Adams
1.0 out of 5 stars Não compre a versão digital
Reviewed in Brazil on 29 July 2023
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Completamente fora de formatação
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Andre Bonin
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
Reviewed in Canada on 2 June 2016
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Good book
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Code Monkey
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent introduction and reference for a non-specialist
Reviewed in the United States on 28 September 2014
Verified Purchase
This is an excellent introduction to forecasting for people who who can live without lots of mathematical detail. All the key forecasting techniques are introduced with minimal mathematical overhead (basic Calculus is considered too much math for the main text). However there is enough detail for the reader to develop an intuition about why the techniques work the way that they do. The implicit assumption made throughout the book is that the reader will use statistical software that deals with the implementation details. The bibliography seems extensive enough to lead the interested reader to more rigorous explanations.

This book provides a lot of good advice about how to actually apply the mathematical techniques introduced to the real world. The chapters on long term forecasting are often startlingly insightful when read today, nearly 16 years after the book was written. Consider this quote: "At present it is not clear wheter Intel/Microsoft or Sun/Oracle/Netscape will be the winners of the race to dominate the personal computer market." The nice thing is a quote like that actually helps reinforce the message in the text about the dangers in forecasting for the long term, instead of making the book feel dated.

I'm some one who needs forecasting techniques occasionally to get other work done. As a non-specialist I feel this book is the perfect one to add to my bookshelf.
3 people found this helpful
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Dr. Chrilly Donninger
5.0 out of 5 stars Ein Lehrstück von einem Lehrbuch
Reviewed in Germany on 9 December 2010
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Dieses Buch erfüllt alle Kriterien die ich an ein gutes Wissenschaftsbuch stelle. Die Autoren haben den Mut den Spreu vom Weizen zu trennen. Es werden die jeweiligen Methoden selbständig behandelt. Der sonst so lästige Hinweis "for further reading see" beschränkt sich auf das absolute Minimum. Die Methoden werden an Hand von gut ausgewählten realen Datensätzen detailliert beschrieben. Man erfährt alle notwendigen Formeln, es wird aber nie Mathematik um der Mathematik Willen betrieben. Insbesondere vermeiden die Autoren die übliche Lemma-Orgie.
Als Grundaussage zieht sich durch das Buch "Keep It Simple Stupid". Theoretisch bessere und kompliziertere Methoden schneiden in der Praxis eher schlechter ab. Man kann sich alle Daten - und noch einige mehr - von der Homepage von R.Hyndman herunterladen. Das Buch liest sich auch gut. Bei manchen Büchern quält man sich von Seite zu Seite, dieses habe ich in einem Zug durchgelesen.
Die vorliegende dritte Auflage stammt aus dem Jahr 1998. Laut R.Hyndman war eine 4te Auflage geplant. Daraus ist nichts geworden. R.Hyndman arbeitet aber an einem Folgebuch. Ich bin darauf schon gespannt.
3 people found this helpful
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G. Keogh
5.0 out of 5 stars A basic forecasting tool-kit
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 16 July 2009
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This is an excellent book on applied time series methods at a basic level.
All methods used are in time domain. They include straightforward regression, exponential smoothing, ARIMA models and dynamic regression models popular in economics. The focus is on finding a suitable description of a time series and interpreting results.
There is a chapter on advanced methods which is a bit superfluous. The main gap in the text is spectral analysis is not covered. However, this means that the mathematics and statistics involved is relatively easy. This book is an ideal introductory text suited to business, economics and applied science students.
2 people found this helpful
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