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Understanding Uncertainty Hardcover – 13 December 2013

by Dennis V. Lindley (Author)
4.2 4.2 out of 5 stars 14 ratings
Edition: Revised
See all formats and editions
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Praise for the First Edition

"...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty."
―Journal of Applied Statistics

The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including:

  • A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability
  • A discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession
  • A consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker's odds are not expressions of probability
  • Applications of the book’s thesis to statistics
  • A demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability

Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.

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Previous page
  1. ISBN-10
    1118650123
  2. ISBN-13
    978-1118650127
  3. Edition
    Revised
  4. Publisher
    Wiley
  5. Publication date
    13 December 2013
  6. Language
    English
  7. Dimensions
    15.49 x 2.54 x 23.88 cm
  8. Print length
    432 pages
  9. See all details
Next page

Product description

From the Publisher

DENNIS V. LINDLEY is Professor Emeritus of Statistics and the former Head of Department at University College London. He is a Guy Medalist in Gold of the Royal Statistical Society and a founding organizer and former president of the celebrated Valencia International Meetings on Bayesian Statistics. Professor Lindley has published over 100 scholarly articles and several books, including Making Decisions, also published by Wiley.

From the Inside Flap

Praise for the First Edition

“...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.”
―Journal of Applied Statistics

The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including:

  • A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability
  • A discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession
  • A consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker’s odds are not expressions of probability
  • Applications of the book’s thesis to statistics
  • A demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability

Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Wiley; Revised edition (13 December 2013)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 432 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1118650123
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1118650127
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 15.49 x 2.54 x 23.88 cm
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.2 4.2 out of 5 stars 14 ratings

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D. V. Lindley

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Frank
5.0 out of 5 stars Inference and rational decision making
Reviewed in Canada on 31 December 2020
Verified Purchase
La reference normative tout public en matiere d'inference et de theorie de la decision.
Dommage qu'aucune traduction en francais ne soit disponible.
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Karl Bielefeldt
4.0 out of 5 stars A thorough introduction for a non-statistician
Reviewed in the United States on 27 January 2014
Vine Customer Review of Free Product( What's this? )
I took a few statistics classes as part of my engineering degrees, which focused mainly on experiment design and manufacturing failure analysis. This book covered a broader range in a way that's more accessible to people of any profession.

The topics covered are fundamental, and I believe should be a part of any high school curriculum, although this particular text seems geared toward the college level. The author explains some very interesting results and properties of uncertainty, that are often not intuitive, using no math more difficult than middle school algebra. The book can help anyone understand things from how worried to be about a positive result on a medical screening test, to how likely you are to share a birthday with someone else at a party.

The author starts with an almost excruciatingly slow pace, but the book also builds on itself, so you can't skip to a later chapter and expect to understand the examples and background information. This building effect also makes the latter chapters much more heavy reading, at least without the benefit of it being slowly introduced over the course of a semester. It's understandable to anyone with a college-level vocabulary and 9th grade math, but be prepared to be methodical about reading it.

The author makes a large attempt to be friendly to non-statisticians, but occasionally sort of "geeks out" about a result, delving deeper into topics than non-statisticians would really enjoy.

My favorite part of the book is the coverage of some common paradoxes and fallacies about uncertainty. It's a difficult topic to make interesting, but this author succeeds.
8 people found this helpful
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I Teach Typing
5.0 out of 5 stars A continuing education class in probablity
Reviewed in the United States on 2 February 2014
Vine Customer Review of Free Product( What's this? )
If you are not trained in statistics and you would like to take a university level continuing education class, to learn probability, get this. This is not a simple or short book. It is the equivalent of a quarter long class that introduces a great deal of material (at a good slow pace). The core rules of probability are well motivated and explained with many examples and then the material is expanded to cover applications in many domains (with great coverage of medicine). The explanations in most intro to probability books are relatively shallow. Here the examples are covered in depth and provide real insights into the laws and application of probability. Numerous classic problems are beautifully explained (for example, the chances of 20 people having the same birthday or the problem of two prisoners trying to decide if they should confess).

There are two schools of thought in modern statistics, the Bayesian and frequentist approaches. This book is a tour-de-force in Bayesian thinking and while it does mention frequentist ideas they are not covered in adequate depth. So, while the reader of this book will walk away with great insights they will need to pick up a general statistics book to learn the frequentist approach.  Statistics, 4th Edition  or if you are math phobic  Biostatistics: The Bare Essentials, 3e  or  Intuitive Biostatistics: A Nonmathematical Guide to Statistical Thinking, 3rd edition  will complement this book.

While the lack of coverage of frequentist ideas is a serious failure, what is here is superbly crafted. Overall, this is a well written, long, surprisingly deep but approachable introduction to probability.
7 people found this helpful
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Brian W. Fairbanks
3.0 out of 5 stars Like a college course you were required to take
Reviewed in the United States on 24 February 2014
Vine Customer Review of Free Product( What's this? )
I ordered this book from Amazon's Last Harvest, that section of the Vine program where all the leftover products from past newsletters are gathered. I have to admit that I selected it based only on its title, "Understanding Uncertainty," not its description. Had I read that, I might have known that this is more of a textbook, something a college student would be required to buy (at a cost of several hundred dollars) for a course run by the Mathematics or Philosophy department that I would have had to enroll in to meet a graduation requirement, not because I had any interest in the subject. Such classes only inspried groans and grumbles among those of us majoring in the arts.

So, with that disclaimer out of the way, I can say that this book by Dennis V. Lindley, Professor Emeritus of Statistics and the former Head of Department at University College London, is for those who elected to take such classes, and did so with enthusiasm.
2 people found this helpful
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Vine Reviewer
4.0 out of 5 stars Intimidatingly thorough look at uncertainty
Reviewed in the United States on 7 March 2014
Vine Customer Review of Free Product( What's this? )
This is a very thorough, very complete overview of uncertainty and probability. It isn't priced for the casual reader, and it isn't really geared towards one, either. The author is candid about his purposes; he comes out and says that he strives to be clear rather than entertaining, which is a good thing in a book like this. But be warned: this does not read like a novel, or even accessible science writing for the non-expert.

But the book is very good at what it does, which is to boil uncertainty down to key concepts and use that to explain probability. This is the equivalent of an undergraduate course, so when you consider that you are getting about four months' worth of lectures in 300 or so pages, it really is remarkable.

The math in the book is generally easy to follow along with; as the author says, it's a language of its own, and once you are familiar enough with that language, you really appreciate the elegance and simplicity it allows. Of course, as you learn that language, you have to accept that this will not be a quick or easy read. But, if you want to put the effort in, you will be more than rewarded.
3 people found this helpful
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