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Cracking the Emerging Markets Enigma Hardcover – 16 June 2015

3.8 out of 5 stars 8 ratings
Edition: 1st

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Forward-thinking investors are constantly looking for the next BRIC-what foreign market is on the brink of expansive growth? Will these investments payoff, or are the potential risks too great? Investing in these emerging markets requires a careful analysis of potential risks and benefits which vary greatly from country to country and even from day to day. In Cracking the Emerging Markets Enigma, emerging markets expert Andrew Karolyi outlines a practical strategy for evaluating the opportunities and-more importantly-the risks of investing in emerging markets. Karolyi's proposed system evaluates multiple dimensions of the potential risks faced by prospective investors. These categories of risk reflect the uneven quality or fragility of the various institutions designed to assure integrity in capital markets-political stability, corporate opacity, limits placed on foreign investors, and more. By distilling these analyses into a numerical scoring system, Karolyi has devised a way to assess with ease emerging markets by different dimensions of risk and across all dimensions together. This novel assessment framework already has been tested in the market to great success. Researchers, students, firms, and both seasoned and novice investors are poised to gain a clear understanding of how to evaluate potential investments in emerging markets to maximize profits.

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Review

Andrew Karolyi has a long track record of distinguished scholarship on international financial markets. This important book on the fundamental risks associated with investing in emerging markets shares many of the lessons of his writing. Anyone who cares about investing in emerging markets should consider Karolyi's new framework. This is an especially important book because it lets data and evidence talk loudly and clearly. Cracking the Emerging Markets Enigma provides a practical framework that highlights for asset owners, consultants, and professional asset managers the fundamental risks of investing in emerging markets. Readers will be inspired by the lucid arguments and, as investors, will be better prepared for the next hard decision they will face in the emerging market space. ― David Booth, Chairman and Co-CEO, and Eduardo Repetto, Co-CEO and Co-CIO, Dimensional Fund Advisors

Review

"Andrew Karolyi has a long track record of distinguished scholarship on international financial markets. This important book on the fundamental risks associated with investing in emerging markets shares many of the lessons of his writing. Anyone who cares about investing in emerging markets should consider Karolyi's new framework. This is an especially important book because it lets data and evidence talk loudly and clearly. Cracking the Emerging Markets Enigma provides a practical framework that highlights for asset owners, consultants, and professional asset managers the fundamental risks of investing in emerging markets. Readers will be inspired by the lucid arguments and, as investors, will be better prepared for the next hard decision they will face in the emerging market space." David Booth, Chairman and Co-CEO, and Eduardo Repetto, Co-CEO and Co-CIO, Dimensional Fund Advisors "Conventional wisdom about emerging markets fluctuates between breathless optimism about opportunities they offer and despondency about their flaws. Instead, Andrew Karolyi offers a sober, quantitative, and thoughtful analysis, which could do great service to scholars and investors alike." Andrei Shleifer, Professor of Economics, Harvard University "Building on decades of academic grounding, Professor Karolyi proposes an innovative and useful framework for evaluating emerging market opportunities and risks. This book should be on the shelves of every EM investor in the asset management industry." Ken Kroner, Chief Investment Officer and Head of Scientific Active Equity, BlackRock "Funding the higher growth potential offered by the emerging markets will only be truly realised with the more active engagement of direct and portfolio investors in developing the governance infrastructure and removing operational inefficiencies. Dr. Karolyi's considered and thoughtful approach to key risk indicators backed with compelling case studies, advances our understanding of the available investment opportunity and market capacity." Michael Cole-Fontayn, Executive Vice President, Chairman of Europe, Middle East & Africa, The Bank of New York Mellon "This book is a must read for investors allocating to emerging economies. Andrew Karolyi is one of the most respected scholars in international finance and has produced an immensely readable and practical guide on emerging market investing. The book offers insights and data on the challenges of emerging countries, which contrast with the conventional romantic notion of EM growth. It also offers an easy to use scoring system to help investors improve their odds for success." Jason Hsu, Co-Founder and Vice Chairman, Research Affiliates "Karolyi develops an intuitive but rigorous process to assess the operational risks, expropriation risks, and other impediments foreign investors face in markets around the world. The result is an easily understood framework that organizes what would otherwise be an overwhelming amount of information. The general conclusions make sense, but there are also many interesting and important surprises to reward the reader. Karolyi's comfortable, intuitive style makes the book accessible to anyone interested in the challenges foreign investors face in emerging markets." Kenneth R. French, Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College "Investors have many reasons why they find emerging markets to be attractive but they also know that these markets have risks that they are not exposed to within developed markets and that they have to master if they want to be successful. Cracking the Emerging Markets Enigma provides investors with an implementable approach to master these risks built using the most advanced research in financial economics. The book is written by a leading researcher who knows how to communicate with investors and whose approach has already passed the market test. I highly recommend it." René Stulz, Professor of Finance, Fisher College of Business, The Ohio State University "The courageous attempt of Prof. G. Andrew Karoly to 'crack the emerging markets enigma' must be commended. After years of work, he concludes that he is 'not sure' that he has actually achieved it. However, his contribution provides a methodology to identify the source and future of emerging markets by focusing on six factors in a 'rigorous, comprehensive and practical way.' Those who work, academically, financially and professionally in emerging markets will recognize immediately some of the most important impediments to further or better growth of those markets. Not surprisingly, most of them are the result of the legal and regulatory structure of those countries. Overcoming these obstacles is a common challenge of local governments and their business community. Andrew Karolyi certainly moved the ball forward in the direction of an enigma that, contrary to the British Bletchley in World War II, might never be completely cracked. It is quite an achievement and he initiated here a sizeable and useful progress, and he managed to make it eminently readable." Georges Ugeux, Chairman and CEO, Galileo Global Advisors

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Oxford University Press USA; 1st edition (16 June 2015)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 288 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0199336628
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0199336623
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 24.13 x 2.03 x 15.75 cm
  • Customer Reviews:
    3.8 out of 5 stars 8 ratings

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  • Serge J. Van Steenkiste
    3.0 out of 5 stars Useful Risk Assessment Framework for Investing in Emerging Markets
    Reviewed in the United States on 20 August 2015
    Verified Purchase
    Andrew Karolyi develops a scoring system which helps global asset managers and corporate financial managers to get a better understanding of the risks involved in investing in emerging markets.

    Mr. Karolyi’s scoring system is made up of six different fundamental risk indicators:

    1. Market capacity constraints,
    2. Operational inefficiency,
    3. Foreign accessibility restrictions,
    4. Corporate opacity,
    5. Limits to legal protections,
    6. Political instability.

    Each fundamental risk indicator includes different variables.

    The author applies his risk scoring system to 24 developed markets and 33 emerging markets. Mr. Karolyi also gives his readers the emerging and developed medians so that they get a better perspective of how each of the 57 markets performs compared to both medians. The author convincingly shows that emerging market risk indicators have significantly stronger correlations with each other than those among developed markets.

    Mr. Karolyi subsequently tests the validity of his risk scoring system by assessing how the six different fundamental risk indicators can explain the “home-bias” and “foreign-bias.” The “home-bias” refers to the propensity to disproportionately invest in securities at home, say the U.S. The “foreign-bias” covers the inclination of investors to disproportionately invest in securities that are familiar or proximate, say Canada and Mexico. The author’s risk scoring system better explains the holdings of global institutional investors than the foreign investor holdings of US residents.

    Mr. Karolyi further tests the validity of his risk scoring system by looking at the impact of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to taper its securities purchase program a.k.a. “quantitative easing” on US residents’ exit from emerging markets in 2013. Operational inefficiency, corporate opacity, the limits to legal protections, and political instability played a statistically significant role in the portfolio net flows of US residents across merging markets during that year.

    To his credit, Mr. Karolyi repeatedly acknowledges the weaknesses of the approach that he takes. As a side note, appendixes A to E include a useful overview of the key data sources used to build the author’s risk scoring system.
  • John Goodell
    4.0 out of 5 stars Book is a great read. Quite disappointed author did not list final ...
    Reviewed in the United States on 24 June 2015
    Verified Purchase
    Book is a great read. Quite disappointed author did not list final data for his dimensions for future researchers.
  • John Michael
    3.0 out of 5 stars For PCA Junkies
    Reviewed in the United States on 28 February 2019
    Verified Purchase
    PCA heavy. It was OK. Not spectacular.